The boats positioned in a more southerly position have, unfortunately for them, been suffering in slightly lighter winds than the boats in a more northerly position. Specifically, Ericsson, ABN AMRO TWO, and Pirates of the Caribbean have been seeing four to five knots less wind than movistar, ABN AMRO ONE, and Brasil 1. This is a direct result of a long wind shadow-like region which has been extending far off Tasmania in the southwesterly wind flow.

As things progress today, it is looking like the wind will improve for the southerly boats as they finally extend far enough away from Tasmania to escape its lingering influence. In addition the wind will generally fill from the southwest, reaching the trailing boats first. Winds are forecast to increase from the southwest and, from tonight through tomorrow, wind speeds will be slightly stronger on the boats with the more southerly leverage.

At the moment, though, it doesn’t quite look like the improving conditions for Ericsson, ABN AMRO TWO and Pirates of the Caribbean will be enough to overcome the jump gained by movistar and ABN AMRO ONE coming out of the Bass Strait. I would expect the two favorites to continue their advantage as winds slowly build with time going toward Cook Strait.

Once the boats pass Cape Farewell on the northwestern coast of New Zealand’s South Island, they will run out of the fresh southwesterlies and into a zone of more variable conditions. A wind shadow will cover Cook Strait making for light and variable conditions before arriving in Wellington. This will more than likely concertina the fleet and could negate any gains made in the next few hours.

The final approach to Wellington will be highlighted by light and fickle winds combined with complex tidal flows. The favorable tide windows will need to be monitored closely by the teams and, depending upon the timing of arrival in the strait, they will choose their course carefully to coincide with minimal adverse current. Lots of challenges remain on this leg!

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